U.S. employers expect healthcare costs to rise 9% in 2026, the highest medical trend in over a decade. The usual explanation is that people are getting sicker and care is getting more expensive. The claims data doesn't support that. Disease prevalence in the under-65 population has been close to flat for years, which means the increase is coming from somewhere else.
This report analyzes 75% of all U.S. medical claims, covering more than 320 million patients, to isolate where the increase actually originates. It identifies four systemic drivers and quantifies how much each one contributes to annual employer trend.
Written for benefits advisors who need to explain the increase to clients with something more specific than trend.
Inside:
- The four cost drivers behind the 2026 increase, and what each contributes
- Why a price transparency rule intended to lower hospital prices is raising them
- How AI-assisted coding is inflating claims without changing care
- Where prescribing patterns add cost without improving outcomes