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Economists at Goldman Sachs said the risk of a US recession is receding amid a persistently strong jobs market and signs of improving business sentiment.
The Goldman team led by Jan Hatzius cut its estimate for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%. By contrast, Bloomberg’s survey of economists last month pointed to a 65% chance of a downturn within that time. Historically the typical chance of a recession in any 12-month period is roughly 15%.
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Despite job openings and increasing unemployment, employers are having a hard time filling roles formerly occupied by non-American workers.
Employers who use resources from countries impacted by tariffs are feeling the financial strain.
U.S. hiring picked up in November and the unemployment rate increased, pointing to a moderating labor market rather than one that’s significantly deteriorating. Nonfarm payrolls rose 227,000 last month following an upwardly revised 36,000 gain in October — a month constrained by storms and strikes — according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released Friday. […]
Wages rose, gas prices went down and consumer spending habits are seen by experts as a favorable sign.
U.S. job openings fell in September to the lowest since early 2021, and layoffs picked up.
