The ACA: Top 10 predictions for 2016
August 4, 2015 11:06 AM
Overview:
Advisers and their employer clients have a false sense of calm about the Affordable Care Act in 2015, because nobody has been penalized yet under the employer shared responsibility rule, says Kaya Bromley, an attorney with Your Obamacare Advisors. Next year could change that, she adds. Here are 10 of her top ACA predictions for 2016.
10) SCOTUS will not hear another ACA challenge
Theyve had two chances to strike it down and they havent done it. Its unlikely they will consider it again, says Bromley.
9) The Republicans will not push for repeal of the ACA
Historically, anytime in this country there has been a big benefit made available to the middle class, Republicans have talked about repealing it, but never actually repealed it, says Bromley. Republicans may try to change the 30-hour work week definition of a full-time employee to 40 hours, but they will not seek a wholesale repeal, she adds.
8) A number of employers who think they qualified for transition relief wont qualify
Im surprised by how many employers believe they have a transition relief because they think they have a non-calendar year plan, say Bromley, adding that many of them are mistaken.
7) Insurance prices will increase
Everyone believes insurance prices will go up, except for self-funded plans, Bromley says.
6) DOL audits will increase
Employers dont just have to worry about IRS audits now. The Department of Labor will increase audits to ensure ACA compliance, as well as compliance with ERISA, she says.
5) A large employer will be sued for cutting employee hours to avoid offering benefits
There are lawyers circling like sharks, Bromley says, to take a stab at employers that cut hours to avoid having to offer health insurance to part, or all, of its workforce. The employers that are less likely to get in trouble, lowered hours early on, she says. The ones that are going to get in trouble are the ones that are doing it now, because its blatant, she adds.
4) Employers that only offer skinny plans will be assessed a penalty
There are some employers offering skinny plans for which the penalty is offset by what the cost of offering a qualified plan would be. For some, however, thats not the case. Bromley predicts some employers who may not have done the math, will be surprised when the penalty hits.
3) Large employers with 50-100 full-time employees will not comply
These small employers are now subject to the same regulations as large employers, but Bromley says some are still in the dark about how to comply and what regulations to comply with.
2) Auto-enrollment regulations will come out but non-discrimination regulations will not
Under the ACA, employers with over 200 full-time employees are required to automatically enroll new full-time employees in one of the employers health benefit plans and to continue the enrollment of current employees in a health benefits plan. The IRS predicts regulations on how to comply with this requirement will be released in 2016, Bromley says, but regulations about non-discrimination rules will likely not be.
1) More large employers will self-insure using captives
There is a reason large employers have self-insured for many years, says Bromley. My crystal ball says more and more employers will. This is especially true under the ACA, as self-insured plans need to satisfy only the ACAs affordability and minimum value tests, but need not offer coverage for the ten essential health benefits defined by the health care reform law.
