If the February U.S. jobs report signaled that America is truly rounding the
U.S. employers added 916,000 jobs in March, easily beating the 660,000 gain projected by economists in a Bloomberg survey and surpassing even the more optimistic crowd-sourced “whisper number” of 800,000. The unemployment rate fell to 6%, matching estimates, while the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 61.5%, though it remains stubbornly close to the most depressed level since the 1970s. February’s payroll additions were revised higher by 89,000 to 468,000, meaning that combined with the new March figures from the Labor Department, the U.S. gained just more than a million jobs.
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While the jobs report tends to attract the most attention, even if it falls on a U.S. stock market holiday such as Good Friday, like this one, it’s hardly the only economic indicator that suggested a strong showing for the labor market. Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, pointed out in a March 24 note that the Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse survey showed the biggest increase in
Channeling Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s message that “it’s good to be optimistic,” Dutta, who accurately predicted both January’s blockbuster retail sales data and February’s surprisingly weak figures, concluded that the U.S. job market could be
That target is lofty, no doubt, and that kind of sustained monthly pace would bring
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Regardless of whether the U.S. labor market persistently eclipses the seven-figure mark, the jobs data from March heralds a new era for economic data. And it goes beyond payrolls. Thanks to base effects from the sharp slowdown around this time last year, year-over-year inflation numbers are virtually guaranteed to be elevated in the coming months. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists (mostly from early March) suggest the consumer price index will increase 2.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will jump 2.1%. Several other gauges look to be on the upswing as well.
The March jobs report leaves little doubt that the U.S. recovery is gaining even more momentum. With President Joe Biden keeping his foot on the gas with a $2.25 trillion U.S. infrastructure plan that his administration says is the most sweeping since investments in the 1960s space program, maybe the labor market truly is headed to the moon.